Cause and Effect in Populations.

I thought the section in chapter 15 about cause and effect in populations was interesting and easy to read and understand.

Cause in populations: given the cause, there’s a higher probability that the effect will follow than if there were not the cause

For example: Studying gets you higher grades.

*In relation to cause in population, people who study will have a much higher probability of receiving a higher grader than people who do not study.

1. Using a controlled experiment: cause-to-effect, we can use a control group of students who will not study and another group who will. Using a control group shows that, at least statistically, the cause makes a difference.

2. Using an uncontrolled experiment: cause-to-effect, we start with the suspected cause (of studying) and see if the effect follows (higher test grade). Though it’s uncontrolled: some people may only study for a certain amount of time, some people may already be knowledgeable about the subject, etc.

3. Using an uncontrolled experiment: effect-to-cause, we start with the effect in the population and try to account for how it got there. We would pick out all the high-grade tests to see if there is some common thread with the students’ studying that got them such a high grade.

Mission Critical Website.

Looking over and participating in the Mission Critical Website seemed like a review because the website pretty much went over everything that we have learned from the beginning of the semester to this day. I really liked how the website broke down the different concepts into sections which made it easier to take in and absorb. I’ve always had a hard time differentiating between ambiguous and vague, but after I read that part of the website I finally came to an understanding…and that is, “ambiguous” means it has at least two specific meanings, but “vague” means it is not clear in the context. I also love how the website had exercises and quizzes that I was able to practice with. I really favor the fallacies (especially the emotional appeal) and reading over the fallacies section made me learn even more about them. Overall, the website was useful in being a little review with help exercises and quizzes to heighten my knowledge about critical thinking.

Cause & Effect website, reading, and exercises.

Reading the book and doing the exercises and reading the website increased my knowledge about cause and effect (causal arguments). I thought that the book would have been easier to understand so I read that first, but I was still a bit confused until I looked over and read the introduction to causal arguments website. Reading the book was a little overwhelming with so many different examples thrown at you, but the website only followed one example and applied all the concepts within a casual argument which made it easier to comprehend. Though, I liked how the book broke down the parts into sections of deciding what is the cause such as: causes and effects, the normal conditions, particular causes, generalizations, and general causes, the causes precedes the effect, the cause makes a difference, overlooking a common sense, tracing the cause backwards, criteria for cause and effect, and the two mistakes in evaluating cause and effect (reversing cause and effect and looking too hard for a cause) because it helped me understand how to look for a cause. Both book and website helped me, but the website was more helpful in terms of simplicity and not so overwhelming like the book. 

Judging Analogies.

When judging analogies saying that one side of the analogy is like the other is too vague to use as a premise. To evaluate an analogy you have to consider:

1.     Is this an argument? What is the conclusion?

2.     What is the comparison?

3.     What are the premises? (one or both sides of the comparison)

4.     What are the similarities?

5.     Can we state the similarities as premises and find a general principle that covers the two sides?

6.     Does the general principle really apply to both sides? Do the differences matter?

7.     Is the argument strong or valid? Is it good?

Example:

Police offers are allowed to use their cell phone while driving. So everybody driving should be able to use his or her cell phone.

What do police officers have to do with regular people?

There are similarities such as them being licensed people who are able to drive and differences such as the type of car they drive and the clothes they wear, but these similarities and differences does not hit the main point of the argument.

Police officers may be able to use their cell phone for job purposes, but regular people use their cell phone for their own pleasure, which can risk the life of another person on the road. 

Reasoning by analogy.

Out of all the types of reasoning I would have to say that the reasoning by analogy was the most difficult for me to understand. Reading the book and the link still had me confused about what it meant. I had to read my peers’ posts about the reasoning to understand it even more. Reading the Wikipedia site didn’t really help me because it got me confused with inductive reasoning. I wasn’t sure if the two were the same or not, with inductive reasoning being the modern view of it or not. Going through a website, I learned that there are four steps: 1. Identify the analogy by recognizing the similarities between objects or situations, 2. State the purpose of the analogy, 3. Assess the source of your analogy, and 4. Evaluate the ambiguities, dissimilarities, false attributions that may weaken or break the analogy. Reasoning by analogy is just like saying: “since it was O.K. there, it should be O.K. here” or “since we concluded here, we can conclude there.”

Example: Dogs are like people. So if they are neglected through care, so will people.

Reasoning.

Reasoning by analogy: a comparison becomes reasoning by analogy when it’s part of an argument: On one side of the comparison we draw a conclusion and on the other side we should conclude the same.

Example: Free food encourages people to participate in an event. Therefore, people should offer free food if they want people to participate.

Sign Reasoning: two or more things are closely related that the presence or absence of one indicates the presence or absence of the other

Example: Where there are shoes, there are socks.

Casual Reasoning: events of one sort (the causes) are systematically related to events of some other sort (the effects)

Example: I leave my house to school 15 minutes later than usual. I drive to school and end up being stuck in more traffic than usual. I show up to class late.

Reasoning by criteria: define the criteria and then identify the best decision

Example: Sleeping late will disrupt your concentration in class. Sleep early and you will be able to concentrate better.

Reasoning by example: the use of examples in argument

Example: You should get a job. When my brother was unemployed he was so bored and broke to do anything, but once he got one he was happier in doing something productive and earning money to spend on his self.

Inductive: reasoning based on previous observations

Example: Ordering at King Egg Roll on Story Road always takes forever for you to get your party tray. Therefore now, I call in advance to make an order so I can get my party tray faster.

Deductive: if the argument's conclusion must be true when the premises are true

Example: All SJSU students are required to have a parking permit when parking in one of the garages. I am a SJSU student who parks in one of the garage; therefore, I have a parking permit.

Appeal to Spite.

The appeal to spite type of appeal to emotion is basically the hope of revenge. Some cultures reject this type of appeal on the moral grounds and some other cultures not only accept the appeal, but also encourage a moral imperative for a person to "get even," to keep one's "honor."

For example: 

John: Hey Jill, what are you eating? It smells really good!

Jill: It's some rice, meat, and some vegetables my mom made me.

John: Oh, can I have some?

Jill: Of course!

McKayla: (whispering) Why are you going to give him some, Jill? Do you remember, last time? John would not give you any of his food you wanted to try.

McKayla's argument: You should not give John any of your food, because he would not give you some last time. To make McKayla's argument strong, she should add, "You shouldn't offer to anyone who has refused to offer you something (recently)."

Appealing to Fear.

Appealing to fear is a type of appeal to emotion that manipulates people.

Here is an advertisement that reads, “Nothing Will Ever Be the Same. Smoking gave me throat cancer at 39. Now I breathe through a hole in my throat and need this machine to speak. QUIT SMOKING TODAY. For help call 311.” The main conclusion her is, “Quit smoking.” More specifically the good argument is saying “because you smoke, you can get throat cancer and will only get to speak through a hole in your throat with a machine.” “Nothing Will Ever Be the Same” makes the advertisement “touch” people even more as the starting statement. This is a good argument because there is some way, some possibility, for its premises of getting throat cancer and speaking through a machine with the hole on the throat to be true and its conclusion false (at the same time), but every such possibility is extremely unlikely. Plus, it has a picture of a man holding a mic on his throat. But also adding, “quitting smoking is your concern about your life” makes the argument even stronger. Overall, good appeal to fear argument.

Appeal to Emotion: Appeal to Pity

In arguments, there can be an appeal to emotion that generally says that you should believe or do something because you feel a certain way. Our emotional life has a huge impact on our lives and what we do, but just because you are moved through emotion, doesn’t mean you should believe the argument. The appeal to pity type of appeal to emotion strikes me the most because I’ve witnessed this in our previous writing assignment with the social organizations. My organization, UNICEF, which helps innocent and needy children who don’t have clean water, have no education, have HIV/AIDS, etc makes me and I’m pretty sure everybody else in the world sorry for them. I feel sorry for them and there is a way for me to help. I just felt like I can clearly see this type of appeal to emotion with the recent paper and just in general, I hate to see people suffer and doing so will just automatically trigger my appeal to pity.